Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,827$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(692 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,562.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,562.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $120$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(108.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,149$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,001$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,474.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(100,474.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,369.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,369.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,456$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,001$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,530.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,530.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $253$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(96.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{241.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(241.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $610$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,301$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,171.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,171.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(325.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $172$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,262$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,623.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,623.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $610$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(215 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{593.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(593.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $291$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,905$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(833 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,818.9}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,818.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,781$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,865.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59,865.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,787$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,562.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,771$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $292,931$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,602.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(281,602.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,942.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,942.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $246,493$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $243,344$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,697.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,697.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,984$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,079.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,079.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,919$ on 2020-07-14
